Sunday, August 16, 2015

IFPL Update

Effective at 0100 Tuesday, August 18th we are moving NW-1 to an IFPL 2 and NW-2 and NW-3 to an IFPL 3.

The forecast (attached below) is calling for gusty NE winds, hot temps, low RH, increasingly unstable atmosphere, and critically dry fuels, all of which will promote rapid fire growth. 

Fire Fighting resources are scarce throughout the region, and because of our critical fuel and weather conditions fire prevention is more important now than ever.  Should a fire start, aggressive initial attack will be paramount. Due to this we are canceling days off for our seasonal fire fighters, bringing, have access to a medium helicopter (McMinnville), South Fork Inmate crews, are working with our RFPD cooperators, and will be running the trap line with landowners for resources available.


 FIRE WEATHER PLANNING FORECAST FOR NW OREGON AND SW WASHINGTON
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PORTLAND OR
305 PM PDT SUN AUG 16 2015

...INCREASINGLY HOT AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY...
...GUSTY NORTH WINDS FROM THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY TO THE COAST...

.BROADCAST DISCUSSION...ANOTHER PERIOD OF HOT AND DRY WEATHER IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE REGION THROUGH TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
IS STRENGTHENING OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC...WHILE A THERMAL
TROUGH EXTENDS NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA INTO WESTERN OREGON. DRY
AND GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY THROUGH TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY
EACH AFTERNOON FROM THE COAST TO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A SURGE OF ONSHORE FLOW WEDNESDAY FOLLOWED BY
COOLER WEATHER LATE IN THE WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...DRY NORTHERLY FLOW IS STARTING TO TAKE HOLD TODAY
AS STRONG HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC EXPANDS ACROSS
WASHINGTON. A STRONG THERMAL TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS EXTENDING
NORTHWARD FROM CALIFORNIA...AND WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER
WESTERN OREGON FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF HOT...DRY...AND INCREASINGLY
UNSTABLE WEATHER THROUGH TUESDAY. EXPECT GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEAST
WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY EACH AFTERNOON FROM THE COAST
TO THE WILLAMETTE VALLEY WHERE SUSTAINED WINDS ABOVE 10 MPH AND
GUSTS TO 25 MPH ARE LIKELY AT TIMES. THIS OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO DRY OUT THE DISTRICT...WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY LIKELY
TO FALL INTO THE TEENS EACH AFTERNOON. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PERSIST DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FOR THE MORE EXPOSED
RIDGETOPS...LIKELY RESULTING IN POOR TO MODERATE HUMIDITY
RECOVERIES ALONG AND ABOVE THERMAL BELTS.

AS THERMAL LOW PRESSURE SPRAWLS ACROSS WESTERN OREGON AND
SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON TUESDAY...LOW-LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL BE
INCREASING. COMBINED WITH THE HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE...
MID LEVEL HAINES INDICES COULD SPIKE UP TO 6 TUESDAY. A DRY COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH THE THERMAL TROUGH EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CASCADES WEDNESDAY...TURNING FLOW MORE ONSHORE BUT STILL RATHER
WARM AND DRY. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO EVENTUALLY
RESULT IN COOLER TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...ALONG WITH
MORE STABLE CONDITIONS AND HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR MUCH OF
THE DISTRICT